Politics & Risk

Politics and political risk
First to predict delay to election returning mineral-rich Guinea to civilian rule

First to predict delay to election returning mineral-rich Guinea to civilian rule

Reuters has called it right in the roller-coaster ride of election season in Guinea, the world’s top bauxite exporter, predicting correctly that the presidential election to return the country to civilian rule would be postponed. On Oct 22, the vote billed as ushering in a historic transition to democracy was delayed indefinitely just two days before it was due to be held. Reuters had correctly forecast days before that political deadlock would delay the poll amid ethnic rivalry. Reuters was also on the money with analysis that made the point that while a delay was desirable to avoid a flawed vote, there was also an increasingly ugly mood of frustration among the electorate that would flare up into violence that would endanger billions of dollars of mining investments planned to exploit the country’s mineral riches.

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